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Pachter Predicts PlayStation 4 Will Get Outsold By Next Xbox

Posted by Sammy Barker

But still thinks that Sony's system will thrive

Seasoned industry analyst Michael Pachter is renowned for his bold predictions, but he’s really sticking his neck out this time. Speaking as part of this year’s SXSW event in Austin, the Wedbush Securities employee suggested that he expects the next generation Xbox to win out the impending console war – despite the system still being kept under wraps by manufacturer Microsoft.

Pachter pointed to the console’s rumoured TV tuner and Skype functionality as possible indications of its success. However, he still had positive things to say about the recently announced PlayStation 4, citing Gaikai and strong content as advantages for the machine. Earlier in his talk, the video game Nostradamus had described the next generation system as “impressive”, and insinuated that its technical abilities could lead to plenty of innovation in the space.

The pundit concluded that he anticipates both the PS4 and the next Xbox will sell between 85-95 million units during their lifespan, presumably with Microsoft’s console filling the upper-half of the bracket. He added that while a price has not yet been announced for Sony’s system, he expects it to retail for a lot less than the PlayStation 3’s infamous $599.

What do you make of Pachter’s latest round of predictions? We think it’s a bit premature to be prophesising numbers for a system that hasn’t even been announced yet, but we reckon that Sony would be thrilled if the PS4 sold between 85-95 million units.

[via twitter.com, twitter.com, twitter.com, neogaf.com]

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User Comments (28)

davitpr

#1

davitpr said:

I don't agree with him based on the next:
1. Xbox won't even win this generation. This is the year the ps3 will get the crown.
2. Skype and TV tuner as killer app? What is this,1990? Everyone with a computer, phone or tablet can already do Skype or other alternatives to video calls. As for the TV tuner, one word: Netflix.
3. Sony has been humiliated enough that they are listening to the customers more than ever and by the looks of it Microsoft isn't, unless they're catering to customers that play Kinect Elmo.

get2sammybAdmin

#2

get2sammyb said:

@davitpr We don't know that Microsoft isn't listening to its consumers yet. I agree that Skype is a weird inclusion on his slide, though.

artemisthemp

#3

artemisthemp said:

I think Michael Pachter should consider trying Internet, since TV-tuner ain't really a big deal, when you have Internet and Skype? Everything pretty mu st have Skype today.

Unless Xbox have some good exclusive except Halo, Gears and Forza... well Sony clearly wins (Presuming PS4 don't cost a lot)

hamispink

#5

hamispink said:

I think that Sony focusing on games was a safe move. I feel that they are guaranteed to get most gamers to buy the system, even if it isn't their main console. As for Microsoft, I feel that they are taking a risk by focusing on multimedia and a broader audience. If it pays off for them, then the Nextbox will sell like crazy, but they run the risk of alienating gamers and failing to attract the broader market at all.

The next xbox focusing on multimedia is like Nintendo trying to court the casual gamer again. The parents and grandparents already own the older system that does everything that they want it to. Why would they buy the new one (Wii U/Xbox)

BornOfEvil

#6

BornOfEvil said:

A TV Tuner and Skype? If that's all it takes for people to buy the next xbox, then point me to the plane that gets me out of the US fastest.

I mean, come on. Skype has been done to death and the only thing new they can do with it, would be some kind of in-game integration that lets you vid-chat and play simultaneously. While a interesting aspect, I doubt anything like that would really garner much attention from the "hardcore" community.

So far, Sony already has this generation won and if Microsoft has something that can top the PS4 from a technical standpoint, then I would be thoroughly impressed. Although, even that would be pointless if the only exclusives they have are Halo, Gears and Forza.

ShogunRokAdmin

#7

ShogunRok said:

I can see it happening if the next Xbox is indeed a media hub rather than a games device, meaning it'll appeal far more to non-gamers. However, as far as hardware and no doubt software goes, I think the PS4 will be very hard to beat.

At this point I'd say the PS4 is primed to be the console of choice when it comes to pure gaming.

3Above

#8

3Above said:

What is the point of a " tv tuner " function when a subscription to that servie is required? Meaning you would already have to be paying for tv or cable to access it. And wouldnt these functions overlap into services like Hulu plus? Most of the functions i can think of them putting into the next xbox are already done by DVRs or other devices that we all already own. As for skype thats cool but like others have said we have that everywhere already. And video chat on consoles is nothing new either. I'll wait and see though.

Munkyknuts

#9

Munkyknuts said:

Who needs skype on an Xbox? I can already make incredibly misjudged drunken semi naked video calls to my friends on skype from my phone, laptop and iPad.

Ginkgo

#10

Ginkgo said:

Would be interested to know what Pachter is basing that on.

For me, the Xbox will outsell PS4 in the US no question, but the US market is in decline. PS rules in Asia and that is where the growth is coming from.

Time will tell.

LDXD

#12

LDXD said:

For me it's all about the games so I can't see myself getting the nextbox with no exclusives outside of halo and the fact EA is all over Microsoft now just put a nail in that coffin anyway

NathanUC

#13

NathanUC said:

I can't think of any feature Microsoft could come up with that would make me choose it over a PS4, but I'm giving them the chance.

fortius54

#14

fortius54 said:

TV Tuner? The last thing I want as a gamer is my wife taking up valuable hard drive space on my game machine to store the newest season of Vampire Diaries. Ugh! I am actually trying my best to get away from satellite/cable boxes so I do not care the least about that feature, and it is bound to add to the overall cost. I really do not care about. FaceTime takes care of me.

I understand what Microsoft is trying to do. They want to be this generation's Nintendo Wii. However, I don't think they will attract a different demographic. I think they'd do themselves a better service on concentrating on making more first party games. Let's face it. Every studio Sony owns is working on a PS4 game. That's a lot of exclusive content. They will both be getting the third party stuff.

Stuffgamer1

#15

Stuffgamer1 said:

I'd like to say that Microsoft doesn't stand a chance...but then I've underestimated the stupidity of the masses before, so...yeah. :P

Seriously though, the scuttlebutt I hear from the game industry says the Durango is a pretty disappointing piece of hardware, geared too much towards media and not enough for gaming. Which makes sense, because all Microsoft ever really wanted was a media PC in your living room in the first place. Well, the joke's on them...I GAME IN MY BEDROOM! ;)

But yeah...so not getting Microsoft's next console. I had enough of them in three years with a 360.

get2sammybAdmin

#16

get2sammyb said:

If the next Xbox has a 'TV tuner' type feature, would that even work globally? Would they have to radically change the box to make it compatible with each region — particularly in Europe? I'm clueless when it comes to most teachnology stuff, so maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Gamer83

#17

Gamer83 said:

I guess if the U.S.= the world, Pachter has a chance to be right (for once). But seriously, if we're talking world wide sales, it's up in the air though I lean toward Sony being able to win. The PS4 will obviously win in Japan, no discussion needed there. I've heard 360 is more popular than PS3 in the UK (still not sure if that's true) but as a whole Sony dominates Europe so the wild card is North America. If the gap is fairly wide in sales again, MS can stay very close, however, barring any stupid decisions I see Sony gaining back some of the market share it lost over here particularly because it seems to be the only one of the big 3 who seems to understand and care about what the 'core' gamer wants.

All that said, I still do like the Xbox brand plan to buy the next one to continue playing Halo and Forza, but I truly hope MS gets some of these corporate idiots like Phil Spencer and Don Mattrick away from that division of the company in favor of returning to more game oriented people who can turn the next Xbox into what the 360 was from 2006-2009 when it was, imo, the best system on the market. That's the only way MS has a prayer of competing in the larger market outside of the U.S.

rjejr

#18

rjejr said:

One thing most of you seem to be selectively and collectively forgetting - the Wii - mocked by many for it's low power, SD graphics, and lack of FPS - OUTSOLD the PS3 and Xbox360 this generation (roughly 100 million to 70 million). That's right, the far inferior system by almost any measure with lackluster game sales sold more units than the 2 better ones.

So by that measure, saying Durango will be lower powered and have less games than the PS4 would guarantee it has better sales ;-)

I said here a couple of months ago MS would forego retail games this time around (see all the "no used games" and "always connected" hysteria) and just call it KinecXbox and lean on Skype. So I can't disagree with Pachter as he's agreeing with me. I'm not saying it will work out in the end for MS like Pachter seems to think it will, but that's their plan - sell $8 Kinect games and HBOgo subscriptions and have Windows 8 running. Has anybody hooked up a Kinect to a Win 8 PC, I'm wondering if Minority Report is here yet?

hydeks

#19

hydeks said:

sigh Pachter's a joke.

But on the plus side, his predictions are usually wrong and opposite...soooo...PS4 will win? Only time will tell :)

Savino

#20

Savino said:

Lol!!! Pachter and his crystal ball!!!!
Amazing that there are ppl who actually listen to him!

Kayoss

#21

Kayoss said:

@davitpr
I'm not sure but dont the PS Vita have skype ability...hold up let me check. Yep! confirmed the PS vita does have skype. WOW who knew? The best part is that the PS vita can stream off of the PS4. Every comment patcher make, i would take it as a grain of salt.

Gamer83

#22

Gamer83 said:

@hydeks

I'd rather both systems be awesome and sell in as close to equal numbers as possible than one be the outright winner. Close competition is always a better thing for the consumer.

hydeks

#23

hydeks said:

@Gamer83 I think the competition is so close that rivalry is basicly pointless :P Lots of people like xbox, lots of people like nintendo, lots of people like sony, doesn't really seem one system is the loser anymore, not like before.

Stuffgamer1

#25

Stuffgamer1 said:

@Gamer83: Not necessarily. In game development, being exclusive to a platform allows you to tale advantage of what that machine can do, whereas multiplatform games are pulled down by the weaker hardware. Less competition last gen didn't hurt gamers...as long as they were smart enough to own PS2's. I honestly believe that Durango selling poorly would be GOOD for gaming...unless you're an XBot, but I don't really care about them. :P

Disclaimer: I mentioned earlier that I had a 360 for three years...a little over, actually. I bought an Elite at launch in April 2007 and two RRoD's later sold it in fall 2010. I do not regret that decision. My point here is that I've been in Microsoft's camp before, so I'm not just bashing them out of ignorance. They have problems I couldn't overlook any longer. Okay, I have one small regret...I miss Blue Dragon. But that one game was not worth dealing with MS.

BlueProxy

#26

BlueProxy said:

Might be too much faith in Skype and the tuner. Skype isn't special any more, and almost the norm on many devices including Vita, smart phones, tablets, etc. T.V. tuner, well... don't see the appeal for someone wanting to play games vs. watching sitcoms. There's cable, Hulu, Netflix, and plenty more for that, which are already live on both current consoles so... no sell.

MS could sell more with subsidized pricing, bundled with network subscriptions or something, and their usual marketing tactics "better with Kinect-Ultra, $5 basic cable for 3 months, on 3 year contract". Not to say it wont actually be a nice system, but they'll find a way to charge for every little thing and service.

DVD_Sandwich

#28

DVD_Sandwich said:

Michael Pachter is a clueless moron who is very strongly opinionated about stuff he knows very little about.

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