Topic: Corona Virus Panic/Discussion Thread

@R1spam a common cold is a variety of over 200 throat and nose based viruses. You do get immunity - there are just so many it's pot luck.

That also explains why some colds are worse than others.

@nessisonett you definitely get immunity. Else you wouldn't see Recovered patients. They would all just be ill until death or in a state similar to the Aids epidemic or when people get rabies. The reports are spurious. In South Korea the 190 people who have retested positive makes me question the test rather than the immunity - what if the tests are also picking up a similar virus? like what happened with our own antibody tests? Not surprised South Korea have a low death rate if people without covid 19 are being diagnosed as having it. Same with Germany. What happens if it is literally picking up a strong variant of a cold? The evidence for immunity is in Wuhan, in Italy and Spain.

@LaJettatura The vaccine in real terms would cost pennies to make. It's free for the UK as we have the NHS, although we pay tax for it in the first place.

@LaJettatura So basically this is just the new normal then? I'm looking at what you're saying and I can't come up with any rational counter arguments to most of it.

The only thing I can think of is that countries may push out the vaccine for "free" (read tax payer funded) because having millions of people drop dead from an out of control virus and overwhelmed healthcare systems would all but certainly be more costly than not doing so. But even then, it's easy to talk about but when you get down to it, vaccinating millions, tens of million, hundreds of millions, BILLIONS of people is just not realistic. Even if we got lucky and got a vaccine that works, works safely, and got it fast, there's no way to just assume it's easy to produce and distribute it.

@LaJettatura I doubt many people who are in employment will be able to refuse a vaccine when it arrives. My employer has always said If you choose not to use proper PPE you choose not to work for us. I’m sure the same thing with apply to most people and this vaccination.

@themcnoisy I dunno, the fact the literal scientific lead on vaccination in the UK is saying that immunity isn’t permanent is a strong indicator it isn’t. It’ll function similar to the cold in that there’s a cooling off period and then you can catch it again.

@nessisonett Evidence says it's at least 4 months as plasma is being pulled from recovered people in China from December.

As I said its too early. There are way too many negative articles at the moment check this out;

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-sugge...

This is a typical article, full of holes. Relying on volunteer blood. The Who has to play safe, the volunteers will also be hypochondriacs. That's an awful combination for a scientific test.

The reality will be massively different in Madrid, New York, Milan and Wuhan compared to Sydney, Berlin and Seoul, It even states a random figure of 14% immunity for France and Germany with no context. No one knows right now, the immunity tests are proving illusive. The real test is when New York rolls out the tested and working antibody test next week. Then we can all take stock once the results of a wide enough group drop.

With Sars immunity lasted approximately 3 years. Its likely but not guaranteed to be similar.

The news is really getting on my nerves at the moment, whipping sane people into a frenzy of bad news. In just under 5 months time we will should all look back at these comments and the reality will be different from the world ending plague rhetoric, Covid 19 isn't even close.

I don’t mean this issue isn’t serious, but boy has it become boring!

@kyleforrester87
I know, right? Chances are, this virus isn't ever going to go away, not in our lifetime anyway. So if the news continues to be dominated by this for the next few months or years, I can see less and less people watching it.

@LieutenantFatman I honestly haven’t watched the news ever since the 2014 independence referendum but the constant coverage is making it rather hard to avoid. It’s easy enough to stay up to date through Twitter etc and you get a wide variety of opinions too.

@LieutenantFatman yes, I just look ahead over the next year and groan. And by that point, as you say, it’s still going to be out there, people will just get used to living with the fear of it and will probably limit certain activities as a result. I mean personally I don’t plan on going to any weddings, gigs etc for a long time. As for pubs.. I’d struggle to avoid them completely but I don’t think I’d go in one that was busy.

Everyone’s just going to be a bit more sensible I guess. But I’m still wiping down my food shopping. I am not going to be doing that for the next year I can tell you that.

Ultimately, I struggle to see what the long term strategy can be other than hoping that some level of immunity begins or we can vaccinate the most vulnerable. In the end, the world cannot exist in lock down for more than a few months without massive chaos and societal upheavel. A slow lifting of lock down will naturally slow the spread but not kill it and the nature of our global economy is that there is still going to be international travel.

On the plus side, we will all be aware of distancing, good hygiene, the symptoms and what to do if we come in contact with the virus so that may help but I don't know what else. I guess I don't get how to avoid a second peak. I think widespread testing and contact tracing is probably the key but we aren't geared up for that yet here in the UK.

@kyleforrester87 @LieutenantFatman @Rudy_Manchego @nessisonett

There are far too many conflicting pieces of information out there. Even scientific studies are conflicting. So we will all end up going with the news that interests us or which is surprising. When the lead medical officer (dark hair usually stands on the right of the 3 during briefings) says its too early for a deep dive into the failings or positives I believe her, that's all we need to know. Far too many foreign sources claiming this or that. Countries with negligible cases proclaiming one thing another with negligible cases saying another.

Europe and the USA will be in a better position to find a workaround than anywhere else moving forward. We have more cases and are better equipped for a thourough analysis without prejudice.

I would assume we get immunity rather than living with it like herpes. But again this is something which will become more obvious in time. Better medical procedures are currently enacted compared to even 4 weeks ago so evidence one way or the other will mount up, fact based.

@themcnoisy yeah well it’s been bandied around a lot but “armchair virologist” is about right - too many regular people suddenly think they are experts. And when even the experts don’t have the answers I don’t think there is much to be achieved from researching questionable data and trying to draw our own conclusions or convincing other people of our arguments.

The bottom line is we are all going to be totally fed up of hearing about this for the next few years, and while we will all just need to try and live sensibly the sympathy and understanding everyone has now will soon dry up. It’s true what they say about death and taxes, and it’s only gunna become more true!

Meanwhile, here in the US a grocery chain has already turned it into an inspiring 80's montage (and yes, this commercial is real, song & all). Only in the USA.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&...

@LaJettatura Seeing as Sanders has now dropped out of the race, it’s not looking like healthcare will be changing significantly in the US for at least the next 4 years. Unfortunately the word ‘social’ seems to make certain groups of people immediately jump on the communism bandwagon when social healthcare is discussed. I actually saw a sign that one of the weird coronavirus protestors was holding that read ‘social distancing = communism’. Bonkers.

@nessisonett @LaJettatura When me and the wife were in Vermont last year, we got talking to an older couple from Texas. Somehow the conversation got to healthcare and he told us that “socialist medicine” was outrageous and then asked us what it was like in the UK.

He quite liked the idea of “socialism” after we explained the NHS to him

It’s interesting though because even if the vaccine effects only last one year, could you build up real herd immunity with it in that time so it would fizzle out? Would pockets of anti-vaxxers make this impossible? Would the geo-politics work?

The ethics of how it would be manufactured and distributed are difficult enough; Trump would be the first to refuse any other country getting supplies if it was made there I’m sure...

@Thrillho Apparently loads of anti-vaxxers are all for a coronavirus vaccine. It’s all a bit ironic given that the vaccine will probably be rushed to market, making it a lot less tested and less safe than the vaccines these ones are actually protesting.

@kyleforrester87 That's the world we live in. Anyone who can use a touch screen is an expert.

We are both sensible enough to look at a plethora of subjects and use the same common sense and open mind to come to a fact based conclusion.

That's not happening with covid 19 news. Almost every source is opinion based on frustratingly inadequate evidence about something off piste.

Our own government for all its faults has actually come up with the best furlough scheme, the best mortgage assist and possibly the best LockDown rules which allow us all to get out now and again whilst remaining isolated and paying our bills. The spokes people are always on point with reminding us to stay at home. For the general public we have space in hospital, shops are stocked and electricity is staying on. We are world leaders in the hunt for a vaccine, hopefully good news is on the horizon.

From a none essential worker they have done as well as possible in my opinion, in that regard. As for the issues with PPE, testing, sick NHS workers, the staggering infected totals and lagging death rates - they are the real issues right now, the government has dropped the ball. But outside of NHS workers and people at risk, if everyone was honest, it's boring news to the fitter than average, low risk person. We are getting paid sat at home waiting to be given the nod to start work again.

So anything outside of this, miracle cures, scare stories about immunity, opinion pieces about life never returning to normal, the outlier 15 year old who dies from covid-19. They are all intriguing but there are a million reasons these things could happen, purposefully left out of the news articles. It confuses public opinion, muddies clear water and adds additional stress.

We need a good proven antibody test, a good start with our stage 2 and 3 vaccine programs and for everyone to stay at home. There should be no rush to head to work and everyone should have a financial crutch during the next month to 2 months.

If the vaccines fail stage 2 and if the antibody test proves to be a dud, then and then alone should we be in panic mode.

@LaJettatura we will hopefully develop the vaccine and our Bros and sisters in the USA are first in line. You have our backs, we got yours.

@Thrillho Here's a good source for information;

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01115-z

The reality to answer your question is the time frame is currently too short but in none biased and unblemished reporting from Chinese specialists in March is that nearly all recovered patients had signs of antigens 2 months after recovery.

Right now there is no other source as we dont have the recovered patients over a longer timescale to test.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testin...

Here's an instructive (and terrifying) article that seems to throw some light on why a number of people with "mild symptoms" seem to die really suddenly.

lol My state is one of a few states that is planning on fully reopening in less than a week. This after a series of astroturfed conservative protests against the lockdowns that were signal boosted by the president of the United States.

Really excited to see our confirmed cases double over the next two weeks, despite a persistent lack of available testing materials, and despite the fact that at least two cities in the State have become hotspots for the disease.