Topic: American Sports

@Pizzamorg that maybe so. But all i'll say is that both Bill and Mike left their teams, and both of those teams were fighting it out for the number one pick this year 👀💀

@Ravix I do think Shai is the MVP. The guy is probably the most well-rounded player in the league. He has great quickness and finish, an absolute assassin from mid range, can hit the 3 with regularity, good defender, great Bball IQ, and by all accounts a great teammate and locker room guy. I really like his chill yet confident personality.

I still like Jokic and Giannis to be in the running too, as well as Tatum. Luka may not make it into the conversation this year due to lack of sufficient games played.

And I forgot to address my thoughts on Butler — I really wonder what team will try to get him. I think the rumor mill has Memphis, Houston, and Denver as all possible landing spots. Golden State would also make sense but I think I saw that they aren’t interested. Honestly, I wouldn’t really want him. Despite him being a great player, he is at the tail end of his career and just too expensive, plus all the headache of the way he’s acting apparently.

What do you think of the Cavaliers? I haven’t watched any of their games. Are they really that good? They’re on pace to win 72 games, which would be close to an NBA record. The ‘15-16 Warriors hold the record at 73 wins, followed by the ‘95-96 Jordan led Bulls with 72. It’s honestly rare company to win 88% of your games. I just don’t think of them as that good, but maybe I’m missing something? We’re halfway through the season so it’s more than a fluke. Are they going to come down to earth?

Yeah I believe the Titans have the number one pick now. Given this is allegedly a weak draft, and the Titans seemingly need bodies rather than necessarily just a couple of key pieces, is it trading Levis and the number 1 pick for a big package of picks the plan then? Do you think Callahan gets to oversee this or is he gone?

@Pizzamorg I honestly don't know, as I just struggled to get into the NFL as a whole this season, and I don't know the feeling around the league or at the Titans. I have read one opinion that seems to think the go to strategy should be to trade down, get bodies, bolster the O line, and if the next season still goes badly with either a new free agent starting QB, or, failing that an even better backup that can swap in for Levis, then the 2026 draft class is the one to go for the next QB and focus a full rebuild around that.

Teams will be looking for a QB this draft, so trading the pick could be the main story, rather than gamble on another QB or waste the pick value.

@Th3solution I don't know, to be honest. Boston beat them and ended one streak, but it seems the rest of the league struggle to deal with them. I don't think teams defend though, like 90% of teams for 90% of the season, so it will be interesting to see in the playoffs. I simply haven't seen any more of them to judge it though. But every time I've flicked on another teams game it's like the all-star game but with less makes, or teams just straight line driving for layups with no resistance. The quality level of teams in regular season games seems really sketchy (unless they are playing a Boston and are therefore up for the game regardless😅) so Cleveland are probably feasting due to the fact no one really expected them to be this good and dont have a Cleveland "plan". But giving any team this much confidence can lead to success, so it could easily transfer.

@Ravix At least for now, I guess my question is answered after Cleveland was able to win the matchup of the league’s two top teams (at least the two best records). The fact that they beat OKC yesterday is definitely a wake-up call to the league that they are legit. I didn’t watch the game but reading about it, the Thunder gave them everything they could handle though and it was a slug-fest to the end. Mitchell didn’t even have a very good game, but the Cavs seem to really be a complete team that doesn’t really depend on just one or two players. I think Mitchell only had 11 points in the game, and Cle was still able to come out with a win. Perhaps the league is coming around on team basketball and the era of one or two superstars carrying a team to a championship are coming to an end. The Celtics were the perfect example of that approach last year. But if you look back at prior years, there’s always been a clear MVP and a main alpha on a championship team — Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Lebron, Wade, Nowitzki, etc. going all the way back to Jordan, Bird, etc. The only other championship teams that I can think of off the top of my head that didn’t have a clear-cut #1 best player would be the Miami team when both LeBron and D. Wade were together, and the old showtime Lakers who had both Magic Johnson and Kareem.

So the Cavs seem to be in the drivers seat for most dominant team, for the time being. But again, I still believe in OKC to ramp up another notch when Holmgren comes back.

@Th3solution damn. I wish I'd watched that game. Totally forgot about it. It was advertised during the Celtics game vs OKC, but I guess it didn't make a note of when it was.

I hope it is the start of team basketball being "in vogue" as that is the kind of basketball, and sport, I like. There is still a clear space for a star player. But they don't have to be the be all end all of success. Everyone has to defend, so keep everyone involved and engaged that way, and reward them in attacking sotuations of they are firing, and you are more likely to be successful overall. It's the reason the Heat are usually a pain in the playoffs, great coaching and an ethic they follow. Which again, is why I think Jimmy Butler is a nutcase. He isn't the ethic, Miami and the coach is the ethic. He simply fits in to it. Sure he is good at it, but if he lands on a team of Tre Young types, it won't make a difference to how those Tre Young types play. It will just be more heavy lifting, but without the team having your back in the same way you have theirs.

Oh, yes. Also... Before 'The Many Adventures of Ja Morant' Memphis was my "west" team that I'd happily watch. And then all that stuff happened and I didn't bother with them. But then they got Marcus Smart so I thought, maybe now it's time. But then Ja was Ja once more, and/or he was injured. I might start to check them out more after the all star game to see what they are like now. I assume Ja has got his sh** together a little bit more now? As he is only missing games through injury these days, it seems? But a team with an ethic like they seemed to have, garnished with a star who can do insane things on the court, to me, is a prime example of both marketable and entertaining and potentially successful basketball.

OKC are far ahead in that regards currently though, and like you say, Cleveland are now making big moves that are gaining them league wide traction and respect. NY should be of a similar mould, too, as they basically copied Boston's approach to building a team and using trades to take it to the next level.

Playoffs should be quite good, if things keep moving in this direction, to be fair. Having written it down, it kind of excites me that there will be some great matchups

@Ravix Indeed. Things are shaping up to be really fun in the second half of the season. Every year there’s a few teams that really click at the end of the season and start to make a run (Mavericks did it last year, Lakers often do this too and just flip a switch in the final stretch) so there will be a lot of shifting in the standings.

Memphis is a perplexing case. Ja is an all-world talent, but just doesn’t seem to quite be the same since his suspension last year. At least in the few games I watched him. He’s still great though, but maybe lost a little bit of his mojo…? We’ll see. The Memphis team as a whole is hard to predict. I really like Bane and they have other good players, but are wildly inconsistent as a team so far. They beat a depleted Mavericks team, but lost recently to Golden State and Sacramento. The got blown out by the Thunder last week (no shame in that) but have put up over 140 points 4 times in the last month — dropping a whopping 155 on Toronto on Boxing Day. I think a lot of the inconsistency is due to injuries, but I’m still not confident they can go far unless they learn to adjust accordingly

@Th3solution

Who out of the current non contenders do you think has the best chance at surprising someone if they get a playoffs match up?

For me, Detroit have actually proven something to me this year. Even though I've only seen them lose to the Celtics (3 times?)
They just seemed to have something more than some other teams that stood out. And I've just had a look at the standings and they have since won 5 in a row, so I'm not that surprised at that. And it seems they are beating teams from the west a fair bit, too.

If you're a betting fellow, I wonder if you could get odds on 1. Them reaching playoffs and 2. Winning one round.

I haven’t paid much attention to the Pistons, but they do seem to have something. They have had some success against the middling West teams — Portland, Minnesota, Lakers, Sacramento. They play Warriors tonight so that will be a test (although Warriors are so inconsistent this year too). They’ve also had victories against the Knick’s, Pacers, and Magic, so they could be a Cinderella this year. I don’t know them well enough to give them odds and I’m not good a betting odds anyway, but I’d say chances of making the playoffs are really good currently only half a game back from the #6 spot where they wouldn’t have to be in the dreaded play-in 7-10 slots. I don’t know, maybe 50% chance make it to #6 seed, and 75% to at least make the play-in. As far as winning a full 7 game playoff series, I think that’s a very low chance. Unless they make it to the 6 seed, they will have to face Boston or Cleveland in the first round. No way they beat either of those over 7 games, in my limited opinion. Maybe 5% chance at best. If they do end up at #5 or #6, then they will face probably NY, Orlando, or Milwaukee. I would give them a 30% chance against that group.

As far as who has the best chance of winning a playoff round as a lower seed, in the East besides Detroit, I think Pacers could put together a run and surprise a team in the opening round. In the standings right now, they would be facing NY. Also, if the standing stay the same the Bucks would technically be the underdog to Orlando in the 4-5 seed marchup and the Bucks can (and would, imo) absolutely win that series. But I think the Bucks rise and probably end the season at the #3 or #4 my the end.

The West is more volatile and a lot of teams could be surprises. Except for OKC, I would say every single team in the top10 is capable of winning or losing an opening round match up against every other team (besides OKC). I don’t see OKC losing to any of these teams in a 7 game series. But could the Spurs (current #10) beat the Rockets (currently #2)? Absolutely. Could the T-Wolves (#8) beat the Grizz (#3)? For sure. Heck, I would probably throw the Suns (currently #12 and one game behind to get into the #10 play-in spot) as a team who could get going and surprise someone. They definitely could beat Houston or Memphis or Denver or Dallas, etc. in a 7 game series.

So for an official answer:
for East - among current ranked teams, Indiana, and among unranked teams, Philadelphia.
For West - among ranked teams, …man, probably T-wolves, and among unranked, Phoenix.

@Ravix oops… realized I forgot to tag you on the above answer to your post. 😆

@Th3solution I can't really argue with all that. Although I still don't class the bigger teams like Phili as an underdog, even if they are bad so far, so if they get in, they should be expected to win games and compete, for sure. I'm also not sure whether to think that way about the Pacers, last season can't have just been a one off, surely. So again, if expect them to compete, regardless.

San Antonio for sure can be considered as the type of team that aren't expected to do anything, but are fully capable of doing something if they get a chance to. But I'd think inexperience may be the end of them, for now anyway.

Cleveland are playing Toronto tonight, so if I think of it I might check it out for a short while. I'd fully expect Cleveland to be getting their biggest win on the year, as Toronto really are bad at guarding and I can see them wanting to give up and try to get Cooper Flagg (if they own their pick?) I'm not 100% on the NBA draft situation, and know it's a lottery regardless. But there's a few teams that seem to be tanking already for a chance at him.

@Ravix Yeah, I’m not a fan of the NBA draft lottery system. The idea is that it should discourage teams from tanking because there’s no guarantee that the team with the worst record gets the first pick. But what can happen is a franchise gets lucky and/or another gets unlucky.

San Antonio has won the lottery three times in the last 35 years whereas many teams that are constant bottom dwellers have never won the lottery and got the first pick. Spurs have won 5 NBA championships in that timeframe! David Robinson was a 1st overall pick from ‘87 had them almost to championship level and then got hurt and missed the 1997 year and so they finished that season toward the bottom and they won the lottery again in ‘97 and picked Tim Duncan 1st overall. Then have finally fallen down in recent years and won the lottery again to get yet another generational talent, Wembanyama in ‘23, and are probably going to get back to the championships with him.

Still, the number 1 picks don’t always work out anyway. Nevertheless, some years are better than others.

As a Chargers fan, you had to leave the door open for them to Charger and lose to a team everyone predicted they'd beat handily. But even I couldn't have predicted the depth of this Chargering. It hasn't been all Herbert's fault, Johnston again with key drops, some baffling play design by Greg Roman (who I'd be amazed survives the off season with this performance) but there is no denying, Herbert has been pretty awful in this game.

As a Chargers fan, this off season is gonna be miserable. At least by the talking head types Herbert has often been criticised when really he has played pretty much lights out since he arrived in the league, but the Chargers haven't achieved anything in that time because of a thin offensive roster, atrocious coaching / management and oftentimes terrible defence. Why Herbert gets blamed for that when other QBs get a free pass, I'll never understand. Herbert is like the sole reason the Chargers haven't been the worst team in the NFL the last few seasons.

Now him playing absolutely horribly in this playoff game will vindicate every Herbert hate take ever written, all achievements he has made will now be erased by all talking heads who hate Herbert for some reason. For the next 12 months, any talk about Herbert will be about this one game as they ignore every other game. Just infuriating.

Like come on Chargers, it was one thing to Charger a game seen as a slam dunk. But for Herbert to go out and lay an egg like this, just pure misery for us fans ahead.

@Th3solution I think Cooper Flagg will be alright as number one.

If Phili can't get up for the second half of the season OKC get a lottery pick, right? 🙈 can you imagine 😂

Man, the Vikings went from playing for the number 1 overall seed to clattering out in the wild card in ugly fashion. There have been talks about changing how seeding works for future playoffs, and I feel like once you start pulling on this thread, the entire set up of the NFL sorta doesn't make a huge amount of sense.

Like if you are a Vet QB, the Brady move was the right move. Why would you want to go to the AFC North or East, when you can go to the NFC South, and host a home playoff game with probably about four or five less wins needed, and a guaranteed easier schedule cause all of your division opponents are all terrible. Like you have zero advantages if you end up in a strong division, it is entirely downsides.

We had three teams this Wild Card hosting a home playoff game this weekend with a worse record than their opponents. And I'm not sure it would have saved the Vikings if they had played at home, but it is still the principle of a 14 win team needing to go on the road like what are we doing here.

Given actual location sorta doesn't seem to mean anything in the divisions cause teams can relocate, I kinda wonder if a European style system is needed, so divisions aren't static, so you don't end up with divisions where all the worst teams or all the best teams are bunched together. I know salary caps and draft order is sorta meant to achieve this same purpose, but I don't think it really works. Cause just cause one team in a bad division might strike gold, that doesn't mean all the other teams in that division level up equally, and if fact if that one team does strike gold, it just highlights the inequality of the system, cause now you can just bully your way around a very small pond.

And the opposite of that of course is something like the Tomlin Steelers. Because of how static the NFL is, being a mid tier team is sorta worse than being a bad one. Under Tomlin they seem forever destined to win 9 or 10 games, make it into the wild card and then get blown out because the Steelers are always like two or three tiers below the genuine post season teams with real chances to make a run. Unless the Steelers intentionally tank, they are never going to be bad enough to amass enough draft capitol to push their team into the next tier and be competitive in the post season, so you are doomed to just live out the same season for the rest of time.

Merry first day of the divisional round day. People call this the best weekend in football, I am not sure if I necessarily agree with this, but outside of Chiefs Texans which kinda has no juice to it at all, unless the Texans win which I feel is super unlikely (but I would have said the same in the Chargers game too, so who knows), all the other games have a lot of intrigue.

I am kinda looking at the Rams as a team of destiny. All the ***** going on in LA, this roster is very well coached and weirdly stacked on both sides of the ball. Eagles are an absolute mountain to overcome, but I don't see the Eagles as immortal. And if the Rams can win, and the Commanders lose, it is a Goff Stafford revenge rematch in the Championship round, and like narratively, whoever overcomes who to make the SB, I mean it is one they could make movies about.

If the Rams aren't the team of destiny, then the Commanders probably are. And I feel like for neutral fans, that Commanders game has to be one of the most emotionally confusing games all season. Do we root for the rookie phenom to carry on what would be a historic run to round out this incredible story. Or do we root for the Lions, the loveable team that has kinda felt like every body's team for the whole year.

And then of course Bills Ravens, which is basically the MVP Bowl and kinda highlights to me how lopsided the AFC / NFC divide is. Where it feels like SB ready QBs potentially could even go out in the wild card just cause all of these generational QBs are all in the AFC and are playing at the same time. Whoever loses this game, they will absolutely treat it like a referendum and I don't think that is fair. The crazy reality is a lot of these guys may just never make the SB, and it says way less about them as players or teams, and way more about how absurdly stacked the AFC is.

What an upset by the Commanders. Chiefs went full villain mode. Henry wasn't the big difference maker that was gonna let the Ravens make a deep run like I expected. Given the conditions they played in, the Rams and Eagles was probably one of the cleanest games we've seen in these playoffs. Feel like almost every other game was defined either by three or four disaster level mistakes or just a full QB meltdown, and I kinda feel like this game was the only one that didn't really have either (or at least none that couldn't be explained by the conditions).

Lions gotta feel the worst out of any team, right? Super Bowl windows probably aren't real, but if a window does exist, it feels like this one has well and truly closed. The roster will still be excellent going into next year, but you just come off a playoff loss where Goff was the worst player on the field, you've now lost Ben Johnson, you're probably gonna lose Aaron Glenn too. Like is there a world where the Lions are barely even 500 next year? Especially if they run it back with Goff, as I don't think any OC will get more out of Goff than Johnson did, and even with Johnson it wasn't enough.

@Pizzamorg @PorkChopExpress I’ll be interested to see if Buffalo can seal the deal. They are a little bit like Detroit with their successes in the regular season and then choke somewhere along the way toward the Super Bowl. Detroit has only been doing it for a couple of years, Buffalo has been teasing their fans like this for the better part of a decade. 😅

Up until recently, the Detroit fanbase was having to go underground with their many years of mediocrity.

But that is a good point about the window of opportunity. It does seem to close quickly with rare exception (Chiefs, Patriots). The good players and coaches get wooed away by large money and bigger opportunities.

As far as Washington, I think it’s lightning-in-a-bottle to be at this stage. I fully expect Philadelphia to squash them this week. They are the Green Bay Packers from last year — great young QB who’s likely to be in over his head before long.

So we’re likely looking at Phili-KC Super Bowl, and I do think that has some intrigue. The old genius Andy Reid facing his former team in a Super Bowl rematch.

Yeah looking forwards, it is like it would be cool to see KC get the threepeat, be a part of history, but it feels more like a wrestling storyline than a sports one, with the Chiefs barely scraping by and bending the rules to eek out victories. It is like a heel wrestler who can't win clean, so has a manager distract the ref so he can win every match with a lowblow when the ref's back is turned. While I don't think the noise would go away, I think people would be less loud about the KC Laundry thing if this was like early era Mahomes where he'd make multiple miracle plays a game and they were actually winning definitively.

As such, while maybe not as important to sports history, Bill's finally conquering their demons and utterly blow KCs doors off is the outcome I'd like to see. But I just don't know whether I see it, even in a world where somehow KC Bills ends without controversial calls, the Bills offence hasn't really been all that explosive lately. And you could argue it simply hasn't needed to be cause they've been pretty good with winning on the ground and in the trenches. But I think KC is gonna demand a higher gear, and it'll be interesting to see if the Bills can reach it, and also hang around in it, as that Allen who throws the dumbest interception you've ever seen still exists in there somewhere. He has just been very well protected this year by the scheme around him.

Feel like the Eagles / Commanders game has less juice. I get that Barkley is maybe one of the best free agent signings in like a decade or whatever, but beyond that, I just don't have a lot of intrigue around the Eagles. The most interesting part about this game to me, kinda like with Texans KC, is the world where the Commanders win.