Whatever your thoughts on Sony this generation, the company deserves some credit for navigating a laundry list of global issues.
From the pandemic to semi-conductor shortages to tariffs to inflation to AI to the war in Iran, it seems nothing is coming easy for PlayStation lately.
And yet, its current console has largely kept pace with the PS4, despite its price increasing in an unprecedented fashion.
More than five years ago, at launch, a PS5 could be purchased for as little as $399.99; now, on the eve of the PS6’s reported release, the cheapest option costs $599.99.
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There is inflation to consider in all this, of course, but it runs contrary to more than three decades of console purchasing expectations. Historically, it was always cheaper to buy a system later in the generation – that’s just how it’s always been.
So it begs the question, with the PS5 now more expensive than ever, can it outsell the PS4?
Prior to this week’s huge price increases, we would have put money on it. There’s still GTA 6 and Marvel’s Wolverine to release, which is sure to give the console a big boost, and we always expected it to co-exist with the PS6 for some time.
Now we’re not so sure.
As things stand, accurate as of 31st December 2025, Sony has sold 92.2 million PS5 consoles. The most recent sales figures we have for the PS4 is 117.2 million, reported on 31st March 2022.
It’s worth noting, for transparency, both of these figures reflect “shipped” sales numbers, which means they’re the number of consoles sent out to retailers and not necessarily sold directly to consumers.
But it costs money to store inventory, so in most cases the consoles in the channel will eventually find their way into consumers’ homes; it’s not like there’s a stockpile of millions of consoles sitting somewhere in a warehouse gathering dust.
So we can probably safely assume there’s approximately a 25 million difference between the PS5 and PS4, accounting for the sales velocity of both machines since the latest data was reported.
But with the PS5 now more expensive than anyone ever imagined possible, will it eventually overtake the PS4?
Well, there are a couple of factors to consider, namely GTA 6, which we mentioned earlier.
Rockstar’s release is unquestionably going to be the biggest game of the generation by some distance, and it’s expected Sony will have marketing rights to the title.
That’s going to move some consoles without question, but we imagine at this stage in the lifecycle, it’ll primarily be selling to existing owners of the PS5. Unless there are appropriately priced bundles or potentially even special editions, we reckon the impact will be notable but not explosive.
Sony is poised to have a particularly strong end to the generation with Marvel’s Wolverine, Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet, and Santa Monica Studio’s rumoured new God of War game. But again, these are likely to sell to the existing install base.
The PS6’s release timing could have a big factor here. If the next-gen console is delayed out of 2027 into 2028 or beyond, then that will give the PS5 more time in the spotlight to accumulate sales.
Sony’s treatment of the PS5 after the PS6’s release will also play a part. While there has been a long cross-gen period between the PS4 and the PS5, Sony didn’t put much emphasis on its last-gen console as an affordable alternative to its new-gen one at all.
If the PS6 is to cost as much as $1,000, as speculated, then Sony may lean into the PS5 as a cheaper option. But that depends on whether prices of the last-gen console ever come down; if it still costs a lot to manufacture, then it may just curtail it and transition all its production capacity to the PS6 instead.
So there are a lot of questions here that make it difficult to predict how much longer the PS5’s lifespan will be, which means it’s tricky to pin down whether it will surpass the PS4 or not.
Our expectation is that the PS5 will cross 100 million units this calendar year, but it’s going to be a slow crawl to the PS4’s total. Unless the PS6 is delayed out of 2027, we reckon the two devices will end neck-and-neck.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter because the PS5 has been more profitable than any of Sony’s previous consoles, thanks to the rise in microtransactions and digital purchases. We’re in an era of ecosystems as opposed to console install bases now.
Still, it’s an interesting thing to ponder. Do you think the PS5 will topple the PS4 when all’s said and done? And does the console deserve credit for even making this a conversation, considering the state of the world economy and the various issues PlayStation has had to navigate these past five-ish years?