Analyst Expects PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X at Launch with Similar Price Points

Analyst expects Playstation to outsell Xbox. In other news, water is wet

"Harding-Rolls then goes on to state that he expects both systems to hit the market at a similar price point, with $399 more than likely being the ceiling for the two consoles."

Seems really unlikely, given the beefy hardware in the PS5. And especially unlikely for the higher-spec Series X model.

I predict that Switch will outsell both at launch.

Who cares if I am wrong, it's called a "prediction" not a fact!

EDIT: I'll be owning both, so it won't matter to me which one sells better. I will get the best of both worlds.

Of course!
One thing I'll say is no matter how powerful it is.. SeX is a tower that just isn't appealing if you want it flat under the TV. It is, what it is.
I just dont see it having a mass market appeal.

With a name like Piers Harding-Rolls he sounds rich enough to buy 5,000 PS5s at launch and make his own prediction come true

@LN78 I estimated $649US back when specs just started coming out. It seems that we are pretty close.

I still stand by that price. It ain't gonna be cheap, but still way cheaper than an equivalent PC.

399.99....lol. I will buy them both day 1 if thats true. Im expecting 5 if not 600

Stating the obvious. With no own goals or massive swerves by either company Sony is in pole position. The build up here on in will be interesting. Xbox was In pole position to out sell Xbox1 and microsoft shot them self in the foot multiple times before launch and Sony made all the right moves.

I don’t see Sony being as stupid

So this guy has a 50% chance of being right. Seems like news.
(smh)
Digital Foundry did a peice on the rumored 9.4 Tf PS5 rumor vs the 13Tf Xb Series X. They surmised that the PS5 is going for a $400 price point, while the SeriesX will be a premium console with a higher cost. The yet-unrevealed lower-pricepoint Xbox console may in fact be the competition to a 9.4Tf PS5, rather than the (expected) more expensive Series X.
..I guess we'll see how it all comes together. Should be interesting. I'm sticking with PS either way.

-10tfps GPU broadly similar in performance to an RTX2070
16gb of GDDR6 RAM
Minimum 500gb custom-built SSD

For £350?? In 2020? riiiiight.

"Switch Pro" at $399, PS5 at $399, XBSX at $399... why not predict GPD Win 3 at $399 while we're at it.

PlayStation has a much larger install base of course they will sell much more. Microsoft still continues to fail in game titles. While Sony pumps out so much I don't even have time to think about Microsoft. Have to say if they had 7-10 must play titles for me I would had bought a Xbox also.

If the rumoured specs and leaked testing is accurate, then even as an analyst, I would be predicting the PS5 to outsell the Series X. The biggest reason is that the leaked testing seems to indicate that the PS5 can operate at PS4 and PS4 Pro clock speeds to ensure that the current gen games run as expected without requiring patches. The fact that there are far more PS4 owners than Xbox owners would lead me to predict that those owners would be more inclined to buy a PS5.

If the leaks are correct, it also looks like the PS5 will be cheaper at launch - at least if MS don't release a more dialled back version. That too would have an impact on choice.

@leucocyte There is no indication yet that Sony (or MS) are planning on offering an 500GB SSD as the storage solution. It could have a regular HDD for storage with SSD built onto the Motherboard and maybe work like those Hybrid HDD's with some SS storage too. That way, they can still give you the option to increase your storage, use external HDD's etc and keep the costs down. Time will tell of course but we know SSD storage is expensive. With a Hybrid solution, they could still offer a 1TB (or more) HDD with SS built in for operational performance gains - as well as give people the opportunity to increase the storage too.

@leucocyte @Neolit @Ralizah Didn't people also say that before the PS4 and Xbox One came out? These companies order in bulk and are willing to sell at a loss. It's impossible to say how expensive it really is, because buying individual components online isn't a good indicator at all. They get it for way cheaper.

I don’t understand MS’ strategy of selling two of the same console to compete against the PS5 (“Xbox consumer vs superior models”).

If the superior Xbox is the same price as the PS5, (with an option of a cheaper, inferior, Xbox model), then I guess it would make sense from a consumer friendly standpoint.

But, if the superior Xbox cost more than the PS5, or if the consumer Xbox cost the same as the PS5, then I’ll have to disagree with this direction.

@Octane PS4/Xbone were reasonably dated tech-wise even when they first released. PS5/Scarlett's components, on the other hand, seem like they'll rival higher end components available on the PC market in 2019. Still not on the bleeding edge, obviously, but much more technologically capable at release.

@throwmeaname People who just care about playing the games, or who are budget-minded, will go for the cheaper machine. "Premium" gamers who are willing to spend more money on their hobby will gravitate toward the higher-spec model.

I imagine Microsoft will be careful to ensure that all next-gen games still run decently on the lower-spec hardware, of course.

@BAMozzy Mark Cerny Said that PS5 would use an SSD in the wired article. I would imagine the PS5 would be able to use an external hard drive the same way you could use PS1 memory cards on the PS2. That is PS5 games would need to run off the internal SSD or a memory card of equivalent speed. But PS4 games would continue to be able to use an external hard drive.

I know this isn’t a PS5 example but if you look at the trailer for the new ninja theory game the are not for gradients in detail off into the distance but you would expect in a current generation game. That is probably because some of the assets are being streamed directly from the SSD or that the SSD is being used as virtual RAM in the first case that would mean that the game would have to be installed on the SSD as the hard drive would not be fast enough to do that on the current generation game.

I believe there was some cases back on the PS3 where assets were streamed in that way and installing a fast the hard drive would reduce pop up. But the PS3 had far more limited RAM than the PS4 and the assets were smaller back then.

@carlos82 He didn't only predict that PlayStation will outsell Xbox though. He also predicted that the PS5 will outsell the PS4 at launch, which is a much more bold prediction than the PS5 outselling Xbox.

@Ralizah Not sure if the article was edited since your comment, but it appears he's saying both consoles will be over $399.

"...he expects both systems to hit the market at a similar price point which is most likely going to surpass $399"

I'm a super duper analyst. I predict Sony consoles to outsell MS consoles for as long as both of them make consoles.

@Ryall I am well aware of what Mark Cerny said and its not just the PS5 that are looking at SSD's. The problem though is that they are very expensive for the capacity and you either limit the amount of storage available, have a very expensive console OR come up with a hybrid solution - a regular HHD for storing games and whatever else you keep on your HDD and a SSD for streaming large assets extremely quickly.

All I was saying is that so far, we don't know exactly what Sony are planning to do. It could be that they have a 256GB SS storage built in but also give you a 1TB HDD for storage. Whether you need to move the games around to get the benefits of the SSD or there is some automatic way - like using it as RAM for High Quality and large file size assets that would be too slow to load from a HDD, we don't actually know yet.

Until we know exactly how Sony's PS5 will be utilising Solid State, its pure speculation. Giving us a 1TB SSD, with games that could well be over 100GB in size would cost a LOT but using Solid State in a similar way to Hybrid drives could increase the amount of overall storage without increasing cost and even keeping it down to their preferred target.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how these next gen consoles will utilise SS and looking forward to finding out more throughout the year...

@Octane - PS4's initial manufacturing costs were slightly lower than its consumer RRP, so the losses per console were fairly small. there's no way sony is taking a couple hundred dollars loss per unit. that strategy almost bankrupted the PS division early in the PS3 days.

@BAMozzy - true, though cerny's statement that from the dashboard you'll be able to see constant live updates for your games and be able to jump right in to an event almost instantly, doesn't suggest a hybrid approach, or at least not one which doesn't include a fairly decent size SSD. anything less than 500gb is fairly limiting imo, as it's not certain how big next-gen games will be. the current CoD will almost certainly be 200gb before its content is done, and a drive that holds one game is not much use. a regular 5400rpm drive is slow to read by comparison, and seems like that could be a bottleneck if the SSD was too small, as it's certainly not going to be read and cache a few GB of data in a couple of seconds. and if it was to temporarily move the entire game from HDD to SSD whilst playing, that'd take a few minutes at start up, and that doesn't gel with the quick spontaneity suggested by cerny's comments.

If I moved back to xbox and the console costs £399. That's only the beginning.

New pad - £70 (£55 profit margin)
Xbox gold - £50
Expanded storage - £100 (we will all need this next gen with the size of files for 8k games)

The reality is sales from both the PS and xbox stores make tens of billions in profit for both companies these days. Selling the new consoles for a small loss is probable.

Well my money will be going to ps5, not Xbox x x series x...

I mean... Isn't this stating the obvious? PlayStation is a successful global brand which sells exceptionally well across all of Europe, UK, Asia, Japan, US, Australia and the Middle East. While the Xbox only sells well in the US, and is almost non-existent in Asia and Japan.

@leucocyte Well, if it's a ''couple hundred dollars'' more expensive than $400, then I don't expect it to sell really, which would mimic the early PS3 days even more I'd argue.

@Salmonella
I promise you it will not be more than US$499,-

I'm done with sony only 9 tf? Just look at godfall that game looks nowhere next gen. Go take a look at hellblade 2 for X and tell me which ones more of next gen worthy.

@Octane - a $600 console is probably not going to fly off the shelves, but at the same time if it's $600 manufacturing costs, selling it with an RRP of $400 is financial suicide (because in reality it's actually only about $300 to the company). 5m consoles sold would be a $1.5bn loss, which is a hell of a lot of profit to try and recoup on games/services.

@Boogie8205 - so you joined half an hour ago to troll?. godfall is a gearbox game, not a sony game, nor a PS5 only game.

@JJ2 it will shift. I own both the pro and x and the x still has to be utilised to it's full potential. I don't get Microsoft sometimes all that power counts for nothing when Sony has pushed the ps4 to the limits and it still surprises us. Microsoft intend to have made sure this happens next gen because ps4 has opened up alot of avenues for Microsoft to copy and vice versa. Next gen is gonna be a blast but still no point being a day one buyer. We need to no if Sony is gonna bring a pro version also.

I intend to own both - why change for next gen? The only decision will be which to buy first as £800+ on 2 consoles that likely release in the same month is too much outlay for me - even if I am already trying to save money in readiness.

There is still 10/11 months before these are expected to release and whilst some leaks and info has been given, little is confirmed and a lot could change between now and then....

Given what's been announced, all I really care about is BC...

Both systems will be crazy advanced, but what about my games?

I have a huge PS game collection and many of the MS exclusives too.

BC is the thing I'm watching now, otherwise I'll stick with my Pro and Xbox S.

$500 just to play a handful of pricey new games isn't what really moves me.

Also have large movie collection (DVD, BD, 3D, 4K), waiting for more media details...

@GarySan You said exactly what I was thinking, we don’t need an analyst to tell us this. The PS brand has been around since the mid 90s, it’s a brand that everybody knows and loves, people who aren’t even gamers will most likely have a PlayStation under their tv rather than an Xbox because it’s the more popular brand.

It’s Nintendo that really competes with PS in terms of popularity and the fact it’s more family-friendly compared to PS and Xbox. But this year for me it’s all about the Xbox Series X, I’m thinking of getting the kids a Switch this Christmas then get a PS5 in 2-3 years time when it’s got a decent number of exclusives released.

With no exclusives (Halo Infinite and Hellblade 2 for the few remaining naysayers) Microsoft cannot hope to compete. Their biggest IP has long been announced as a multiplatform title and their second next gen game was just confirmed to be as well. They aren't starting off on the right foot and this whole power motif they've got going after years of failing with it will be their downfall.

Now if only people would wake up to how bad Gamepass is for consumers and the industry as a whole, and really put pressure on MS, I'm sure we could get something great from them. I rag on them a lot (they're the solitary reason for most of the awful s*** gaming has produced in the last decade) but when they actually put the effort in, it's fantastic. It's just too bad they only do that once a year at best.

_{Language! - Quintumply}

@Nintyfan You say XSX has no exclusives but to people like me who have no interest in PCs and only care about consoles, they are exclusive to me. Which games are these you say that are now multi platform?

I’d like to know how you think GamePass is bad for the consumer? Well over 100 games to download and play for £7.99 a month and with new games added all the time. They always have offers on where you pay a measly £1 for the first 3 months. All I’ve seen is people saying how amazing the deal is.

Also Microsoft Flight Simulator 2020 is coming to GamePass when it releases this year and from what I’ve seen of it it’s going to be the best looking and most ambitious game ever made, it looks just like real-life. I know what I seen was most likely running on a powerful PC but I’m sure we won’t see much difference when it’s running on the XSX. Games like this alone are worth paying GamePass for.