Topic: Corona Virus Panic/Discussion Thread

We have to really REALLY decide / be informed what track we are taking in the fight against Coronavirus. I doubt it will somehow fade away in the summer, the evidence seems flaky at best with the whole world getting regular cases.

Purposeful infection is a dead dog politically. Covid 19 is too dangerous for our health services. They will be overwhelmed with dead people everywhere.

Flattening the curve, is a good idea for now - but how long and fat is this ongoing curve? If we are all back in work in 3-4 weeks we would have suppressed cases but be back in the exact same situation a few weeks later, with a negligible amount of immunity. I doubt most business would ever recover.

Total suppression, the only true way to deal with this is close up life for 12-15 weeks. Complete closure. No traffic, no nothing allowed anywhere. But is it even possible to get this buy in from every country on the planet? No, probably not.

Grim.

Locking down countries is the ideal plan cos the virus can't survive long out in the wild so it's best everyone limits social interactions to halt the spread. China seem to be close to reaching a recovery phase and while things in Italy are grim the number of daily cases actually went down today. It's unprecedented this happening but it's necessary to halt the spread and the sooner we all cooperate with government and scientific advice the sooner regular life will be restored.

@themcnoisy I think it's really gunna be a case of lock down/partial relief/lock down/partial relief for 12-18 months just to keep things ticking over. Every time the case numbers rise there will be limits imposed, but it'll get a bit easier and the NHS will be more and more prepaired with equipment and less ill people coming through, but it's looking like it'll be a long haul. I guess looking at how China does in the next couple of weeks will be a good indicator.

Generally I think we'll all learn to sort of live with the idea of it before it's actually dealt with.

I'm no economist, but you have to think the potential long term economic damage is a whole other issue.

@AdamNovice you called it early in the thread Ad, the elderly and infirm are in a predicament. I just want it over and done with, get some kind of immunity amongst the young and fit.

But that's asking to out people in harms way so never going to happen in this climate.

@LaJettatura the police have additional powers. You can be dispersed at least or fined / arrested in the worst cases. The uk has gone all in here, we cant have more than 2 people at a time together outside and can only exercise once a day.

To be Frank the pictures of throngs of humans in parks and seasides are huge red flags that the message failed to get through over the weekend. It was mad.

But then again the situation is so surreal and makes no sense living 39 years and never giving high fiving or a quick cuddle a second thought. Watching a footy match from earlier this season they were all over each other and felt bizarre with how we have to behave now. Super reluctant to even pick up a plate off my son.

@kyleforrester87 stopping and starting will have a huge effect. Where as now, I'm getting paid up and held onto thanks to the government scheme. Getting good money to sit in the house from next month. What are the actual ramifications in real world terms?

People have been sacked and cash in hand jobs gone. So our economy has already contracted. The money won't rotate all over the place which means less people benefit. Going into the future if we have closures every 6 weeks then confidence will be thin on the ground, people just won't buy a nice car if they can't use it - public transport money will disappear. Toll money goes down, parking charges are infrequent, valeting jobs go as you do it yourself, no need for parking attendants if no ones there, impulse purchases in shops are gone, you buy less clothes, you wear out less trainers, you don't go the restaurant. Your decoratings done so no need for the tradesman etc etc.

What's less obvious is we will be more weary for the 2nd and 3rd waves. Staying in all the time, worried to go out and join the 200,000 people who have already died. This is where the plan falls down, there is no bottomless pit. At some point we need to make that money back. We won't be in a good position for years and the country will go bust.

lol I had to re-read this sentence three times before I realized what you were saying.

Apparently I still have the brain of a 13-year-old.

@kyleforrester87 It'll be interesting if this state of hyper-awareness about disease and social distance becomes a new normal due to the length of time this virus is likely to stick around.

@Ralizah At least it’s wasn’t just me who thought that 😂😂

@LaJettatura That's very kind of you mate, hope you and your family are well.

@Ralizah @nessisonett what did you both think he said?!?

@nessisonett @Ralizah oic now lol

The transition from boy to man, captured in two posts that were only a minute apart.

I read a news story today the the Governor of New York no longer thinks the virus can be stopped in New York and they are doing all they can just to slow the virus in order to not overburden the healthcare infrastructure. Meanwhile POTUS is downplaying the virus yet again - notably with the absence of the top expert at the press conference.

And the Olympics have been postponed, unsurprisingly, despite what some Japan haters were suggesting I really don't think it was ever in doubt.

I think you may mean from man to boy. Sadly I am now a man again 😔

@Heavyarms55 New York has more reported cases than the entirety of France, and is going to surpass Iran's count in a day or two, so I think that's a pretty realistic assessment.

The virus can't be stopped here. We wasted valuable time and allowed it to spread almost unchecked for weeks. It's going to burn through our population and kill tens of thousands of Americans when all is said and done.

@Ralizah I was looking at some numbers, globally there's been about 380k people confirmed with the virus, 101k have recovered and 16k have died.

So let's say just 3% of the US's 327 million people get the virus, that's about 10.9 million people sick, about 30 times the total confirmed cases to date, it would imply around 480k people could die.

That's if the virus only infects 3% of the US population. Let's imagine if the virus hits just 1% of the global population of 7.7 billion: that's 77 million people. More than 7 times the above example of 3% of the US population. If 77 million people got sick, that would lead to potentially over 3.5 million dead.

Then we have to consider other factors. Most hard hit countries right now have been financially comparably well to do nations. I don't think anyone would argue that America, South Korea, China, most of Europe and and the like are ill equipped in general. If the virus spreads to Africa or India or parts of South America or Southeast Asia where countries have a lot less developed infrastructure and resources - the death rate could potentially be much higher.

I've seen some people suggesting that this virus is going to burn through nearly the entire population that even China which seems to have beaten back the tide, could easily see another outbreak...

If that happens I dread to think of what the future could hold. We could be looking at numbers of dead not seen since the world wars.

@kyleforrester87
Just read that bicycle shops are allowed to stay open! Unexpected.

@LieutenantFatman that's a weird one. Boris Johnson probably has shares in them lol.

@Heavyarms55 the UK health advisor thinks if we test everyone, 4% will develop lung problems and need a ventilator, 1% will die. The real issue is hospital capacity, unmanageable situations will lead to more dead.

@Ralizah Trumps philosophy on coronavirus is unique other than Sweden. It's going to be crazy in approximately a weeks time when the death toll in USA is the highest yet. Smashing all the records.

But.... We won't actually know if this decision is correct as @kyleforrester87 said, China is going to find out very soon what a second wave feels like.

A particularly nasty feature of this virus is it seems to affect those who have had a higher dose worse. When pick it up from a brief encounter with a single infected individual or a surface they have contaminated it often get a mild infection. Those who are caring for a sick individual without proper PPE get a large dose from a single line and are often more severely ill. The doctor caring for multiple infected patients without proper PPE will get a high dose for multiple lines and therefore have the worst chance.

It’s worth saying that if you’re unlucky any infection can be lethal. But if you are forced to be in a dangerous situation it’s still worth cutting down your exposure time, wearing the best PPE possible and sanitising yourself immediately afterwards.

Chickenpox is apparently similar in that the first person infected in the family often has a milder illness than subsequent infections.

On a population level ,even without the impact on the health service, having a lower peak is desirable. Because it reduces the chance of people picking up multiple lines simultaneously.

@LieutenantFatman lol I thought you were joking but you’re right 👍🏻

@themcnoisy 4% of the population will get infected, or 4% of the infected will need ventilators? And same question for the 1%. That's an extremely important distinction!

@LaJettatura I just read an article that in a recent interview he talked about being glad Trump hadn't fired him yet. There are signs that Trump is chaffing under having to follow advice. And it seems clear to me - though I don't want to get political more than needed - that Trump does not like following expert advice. In fact he has spent much of his political career denouncing "experts" and claiming he knows better. It's frightening.

@Heavyarms55 Did you see his recommendation to take Chloroquine? And now a man is dead thanks to the terrible advice (however idiotic actually taking it may be).