Topic: Which First Party Exclusive Do You Think Will Sell The Most

@RogerRoger

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@RogerRoger so you DO game with a bottle of Jäger tucked down the side of your leg. Hm.

** ah no, you said no alcohol. You're clean, all good.

Spider-Man makes most sense for me, as cleverer people before have suggested, it's going for a wider market than TLOU2. Either way, I'm not really too excited for either as I think we'll be getting more of what we've already played a hundred times before with the likes of Uncharted, Batman etc.

Still, I'm sure they will look pretty, and I expect I'll play em both.

When's Ni No Kuni 2 out again?

1) Dreams 25 million plus
2) Spiderman 15 million plus
3) Blood and Truth 10 million plus (packed in with ps5 vr)
4) TLOU 2 7 million
5) GOW 5 million
6) Detroit 3 million

@kyleforrester87 Ha, ha! That pic. It looks like he has an ice pack on his head, is that what it is? That or a weird Trump-esque hairdo.

I think it's worth noting that by the time TLOU2 hits (holiday 2019 ?), the PS4 will be at a 100million+.
I'd be shocked if it does any less than 10million (10% attach rate). I expect it to be the last first party exclusive for PS4 and Sony are going to market the hell out of it.

@themcnoisy 25 mil on dreams? Lol

Maybe, doesn't feel like the next Mine Craft though!

@kyleforrester87 I can only assume that @themcnoisy was saying that very tongue-in-cheek. The fact that since its been announced, which is a LONG time now, a LOT seem to forget this exists and those that do still seem very unsure of what this game actually is. Even if its a 'launch' title bundled in with the PS5 (like Wii Sports), that won't help it reach those figures. I would be surprised if Little Big Planet reached 25m combined sales across the franchise...

Spider-Man selling 15m seems rather optimistic - despite the fact its Spider-Man. Its had its share of 'disappointment' with reveals - not saying they are necessarily justified or will affect sales - but the QTE's and comments about visual downgrades has seemed to lead to more people less inclined to buy on day 1. I don't know if Spider-Man will be the bigger than the Last of Us but we still don't know enough. The combat, whilst very Batman in style, has been done a lot now too. Story and content in the world may determine how successful it turns out to be

I think these will all be 'financially' successful - as in profitable but considering the games that haven't sold 4m+ on PS4, I do wonder whether many of these will be 5m+ sellers.

@BAMozzy I did think that but then I thought could it actually be the next (PS exclusive) Minecraft?

Highly likely not, but still, you never know!

@kyleforrester87 I don't think Minecraft has sold more than 6m on the PS4. Its large sales numbers are spread across all platforms and especially on PC. Even on the 360, it sold around 10m of its 54m copies - the highest of any individual console so it would have to take off bigger than Minecraft did. 25m would make it the best selling game on PS4 - that's also a LOT more than GTAv sold (17.3m) and more than CoD (BO3 15m, WW2 11.65m) and Fifa (17 10.9m, 18 10.4m) and Uncharted 4 (9.94m). Of course these may be Physical numbers but that's still the benchmarks that these games set.

Blood and Truth at 10m, a VR game when VR hasn't really taken off. Even if bundled with PS5 VR, I doubt it would sell that many - not unless they basically give away the headset free with the game...

@kyleforrester87 @BAMozzy Whats gonna happen is this;

Donald Trumps focus on the violent game industry will make parents sit up and buy nice games for their kids.

Enter Dreams......

Some prominent games media personalities belief that Dreams will bomb so hard, that Sony will close down Mm.
I don't see it. I reckon it will do great with a long sales tail. 3-4 million for sure. 5 million+ if it can catch on with the minecraft gang.
This will be the first AAA PS4/PSVR game from Sony. The VR community maybe small in number, but it does have purchasing power. I think it will have a really high attach rate among PSVR owners and then you have all of those that will pick it up for the PS4 as well.

Speaking of First Party exclusives...
Concrete Genie.
I didn't realise PixelOpus was a First Party Studio.
Just makes you think who else Sony have got tapped up working on exclusives for them.

How long did Japan studio work on TLG again? That game wasn't a huge success either. I don't think they really care. If Dreams wins a bunch of awards at the end of the year and if it sell 1+ million, I think they're satisfied, even though they technically lost money on the project. That being said, Media Molecule isn't a very big studio, so that could not only explain the long development time, but that also means they're not as expensive as Santa Monica for example.

Anyway, Dreams can be a big hit if they market it the right way.

@KratosMD Dreams was first demoed in 2013 during the PlayStation meeting & got it's first teaser trailer in July 2014. This game has been cooking for a long, long time.
I do feel like it needs to do well.
1 million for a game that took 5 years to make can't be good enough.

Like I said though, I expect the game to do well.

It seems to me like Japan Studios has more leeway than the other studios. Their games don't sell well, but it almost doesn't matter.
Heck they worked on Knack 2, before the project was even green-lit by Sony!

@KratosMD I don't think they have to compensate for the Vita's failure. At least, that wouldn't be fair. If they got assigned to work on a game for a system that barely sold a couple of million units, it's not their fault.

Anyway, I think Sony's glad that they're working on something different and unique. And it's a VR game too. With the potential of selling creations made in Dreams as separate games on the PS store.

All games may have very different sales targets - Dreams is no different. It may have to sell a lot less than something like Horizon:Zero Dawn because Sony doesn't spend so much on the marketing - although that game also had a lot of other areas for income with merchandise.

We don't know how much Sony has invested in this game and how many copies it would need to sell to be profitable and therefore a success - maybe not a 'massive' success but a success none the less. Not many games need to sell in excess of 5m copies to be profitable....

Point is, Sony may be happy if Dreams sells 2-3m and therefore MM has made a 'successful' game and won't be shut down.

I personally think Dreams fate is up on the very hands of the first users, as if they are capable and with plenty of free time, it can turn into a hit not like Minecraft but could sell some millions of copies.

For what I can speculate if everybody try and make the new MGS, the new HZD, the new Half-life and so on, Dreams will just fail, as those are things impossible to achieve. I remember the similar game (Sparks???) made by MS ended badly as the users tried to copy / ripoff AAA games. Instead, if the Dreams users try to create simple games as tributes of things, charters and story we love, it will have a chance.
For example, if I buy it, I will try to design "Heroin Hero" a non-existing video game from an episode of South Park.

@madcow78 A number of games have had tools for creating additional games - even levels but that doesn't necessarily help either. Its great if you have a lot of creative people but how is that going to entice potential buyers when there is often no coverage of their creations. At most, you may get some developer (or wannabe developer) finding something that someone else created and inspiring them to make some indie or even AAA game based on the concepts.

Little Big Planet had a lot of user created content as did games like Trials - not just new tracks either. Doom too has user generated content (not on Switch) and of course you mentioned Project:Spark but these have hardly been a 'big' selling point for those that may not have been interested in the base game. Separating the wheat from the chaff is another problem with these games. Having 1m+ user generated offerings may only yield 1% that's 'decent' and even less that's exceptional and/or creative (by creative I am not referring to artistic creativity but also including game-play and/or concept). What's the betting that a lot will try to create their own 'Battleground' and take on the Hunger Games but of the thousands that may be created, how many do something that stands out and do something better than any others (inc Professionals - like Fortnite or PUBG). Then of course, how will those who dismissed the game at launch will buy it because of 1 or 2 user created content - that's assuming they even get to hear about these.

Point is, the user generated content is usually more for those that want to get more out of the base game but if people aren't interested in the base game, then you won't get people buying it for the user generated content.