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This Analyst Thinks the PS4 Will Sell 51 Million Units by 2016

Posted by Sammy Barker

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There’s no doubt that the PlayStation 4 is doing very well for itself, selling over seven million units at last count, and likely working its way towards another major milestone as we type. However, writing as part of its latest console forecast, the International Data Corporation predicts that even better times await the Japanese giant’s freshest format. In fact, according to Games Industry International, the research firm reckons that the machine will have sold 51 million units globally by the end of 2016.

That’s a pretty bold estimate, and we’re not convinced that the console will achieve it. As already alluded, the system is selling extremely well at the moment, but it would need to maintain that exact same pace globally for the next 30 months or so, and we can’t see that. Moreover, it would need to pick up pace in regions like Japan, where it hasn’t exactly got off to the strongest start, while also keeping its nose in front in extremely competitive territories such as North America and even the UK.

Bafflingly, despite the bold estimate, the company doesn’t think that the PlayStation maker will win the format war in North America – especially if Microsoft opts to unbundle the Kinect camera that comes included with the Xbox One. “Assuming that the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects the Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016,” it said.

Elsewhere, the firm reckons that disc sales will continue to decline during the first six years of this generation compared to the last one, as digital purchases continue to pick up pace across all major platforms. The organisation expects disc-based sales to decrease by 45 per cent during the abovementioned time span, but predicts that rising digital revenue will offset the decline in physical sales. Do you think that Sony will hit that outlandish sales estimate? Are you ready to buy purely from the PlayStation Store? Let us know in the comments section below.

[via gamesindustry.biz]

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User Comments (20)

N711

#1

N711 said:

They borrowed Pachter s crystal ball thats why we havent heard of him for a very very a long time

Bad-MuthaAdebis

#2

Bad-MuthaAdebis said:

Digital purchases won't increase by nearly as much as they're suggesting unless they decide to do the sensible thing and discount them heavily. I doubt xboxone will ever take a significant lead in north america they may well compete but they won't trounce Sony again. As for 50 mil, I can see that, if China opens up then we can expect 10 mil selling there easily within 12/24 months.

Jazzer94

#3

Jazzer94 said:

I doubt this a lot the PS4 will lose steam at the rate of the game releases and the large amount of cross gen games being made don't help either plus PC is king in China I have a feeling that the consoles won't be as appealing as people think.

Bad-MuthaAdebis

#8

Bad-MuthaAdebis said:

China has been starved of consoles, I also expect Sony to offer a cheap ps3 with giant first party bundle. I guess the only concern with China is the obvious piracy problems.

eliotgballade

#11

eliotgballade said:

optimistic numbers indeed , remember 2015 is the year of the xbox 1.5 .
just wait and see , they can do a marketing thing with the "15" part of 2015 too . (i am so in the wrong job!) :)

ToddlerNaruto

#12

ToddlerNaruto said:

I'll never prefer digital downloads for games...retail discs with beautiful cases, cover art, and manuals ftw :).

(I don't care that some games are free or half the price on PSN, it's not worth the extra HDD space or download/install time)

charlesnarles

#13

charlesnarles said:

@ToddlerNaruto I agree, I like to see my cases by their respective guides. Game file sizes increase close to the rate that hdd prices decrease, so we'll always have space for a limited number of purely digital games

ToddlerNaruto

#14

ToddlerNaruto said:

@charlesnarles If you meant PS1 Classics, PS2 Classics, and the PS3/PSVita/PS4 digital-only titles, then yeah I agree.

I would have to buy those from PSN...but if a PS3/PSVita/PS4 game does have a retail edition, I'll prefer that.

(I'd prefer buying a PSN-exclusive HD PS3/PS4 version over the original PSVita version though)

Bad-MuthaAdebis

#15

Bad-MuthaAdebis said:

@charlesnarles @ToddlerNaruto I think most console gamers prefer disc, the only reason other than its only available on PSN is to buy a digital version if you plan to never sell a game on, in which case I'd even more so prefer the disc version. I don't think digital is ever going to catch on until they do see sense and offer significant reductions from launch, at the very least for early pre orders.

Gamer83

#17

Gamer83 said:

I would say it's not likely but I'm not ruling out the possibility of a strong showing in China.

Punkinhead145

#18

Punkinhead145 said:

I really hope PS4 stays on top in North America for this generation. I always prefer physical copies of the game to digital copies, so maybe digital sales will increase, but not quite as dramatically. As for China, I'm not sure. The censoring could block quite a few major games, causing consumers not to by the system for a lack of good games, but I hope I'm wrong and it becomes a stable market.

Sutorcen

#19

Sutorcen said:

Analysts are only here to shape public opinion, as it was proven by the "analysis" of the tablet market all those years, where the numbers were nothing but a lie to serve anything but the truth. So anything they have to say is at best of no interest.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/05/04/apples-ipad-business-isnt-collapsing-but-the-rest-of-the-tablet-industry-sure-is

To quote another gamers comment "there are more liars in the gaming industry, than there are in the parliament."

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