News Article

Analyst: PS4 Sales Will Surpass 100 Million Over the Next Six Years

Posted by Sammy Barker

Up and at them

Sony’s next generation wonder box is undoubtedly off to a stellar start, with last night’s NPD sales figures showing that the platform holder may even have managed to turn the tide in North America – the PlayStation 3’s weakest territory. That’s leading many analysts to be optimistic about the PlayStation 4’s future, with industry research group DFC predicting that the system will surpass 100 million units by 2020.

As part of a widespread report – which hints at “major” industry growth this year – the firm suggested that the Japanese giant’s burly black box is poised to narrowly dominate this generation due to its pricing advantage and “strength in Europe”. It added that it believes that the PS4 will become the lead platform of choice for Western and Japanese developers.

However, it doesn’t expect price cuts to come anytime soon. “We modelled price cuts into [our analysis], but we think that they are going to happen fairly slowly and there are likely to be more bundles versus just a straight price cut,” said analyst David Cole. “We think that [the platform holders] will do their best to maintain a solid price point.”

In our opinion, that’s all going to depend on Microsoft. With the Redmond-based manufacturer falling behind in its strongest territories, it may see the need to reduce the price of its hardware soon. Fortunately, the PlayStation maker has indicated that it’s in a position where it can counter any tactical changes by the competition should it need to. It’s going to be a fun six years, folks.

[via gamesindustry.biz, vg247.com]

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User Comments (15)

eliotgballade

#1

eliotgballade said:

" ...and we'll keep on fighting till the end " freddie and the lads are NOT my favourites , neither is the champions league , so thanks for that!
at the risk of being a wet blanket ; 100 million units prediction is just that (a prediction) . i reckon xbox 1.5 or drastic price cut to counter ps4 runaway sucess

Gamer83

#2

Gamer83 said:

Wish I could tell the future as well as these people. I don't get paid for my predictions eventhough I'm not wrong that much more often.

alphadrago5

#4

alphadrago5 said:

I'll be honest.. I think these analysts are gonna be terribly wrong.. I was sorta skeptical when they predicted 5 million by march but I see now the PS4 has no problem reaching that. But 100 million? That's insane. As in they are completely taking out the fact that someone actually has to buy the thing. There are only so many gamers in the world.. Think about how many units GTA V or Black Ops II sold. A lot, making billions of dollars, but no where near 100 million units were sold even if you combine the two together.
-Edit- Tried getting the exact numbers for those 2 games, BO2 was 7.5m in September 2012.. so guessing around 10m by now. GTA V is hard to figure out since a lot of units were "sold-in" and we don't exactly know how much of those were sold. It's likely around 20-25m though (Because it was 15m units minimum in the first 3 days as they got 1 billion dollars in that time period). In the end I suppose if you add these two up it's 1/3 of the way there… nah still not really close.

rjejr

#6

rjejr said:

100m seems like a lot, but who knows. The Wii U certainly isnt in play like the Wii was, and X1 may never come out in Japan. I think the wildcard is an unknown, maybe an Amazon box, or a Roku dedicated game box, or something completly new.

I think its really a little too early to judge. Even the Wii U had a good 1st holiday, Feb, Mar and Apr matter for the PS4. Though inFamous and the Japan release will gaurantee better sales than Wii U had.

Oh, and before we get a price drop they can add in the camera if X1 drops. Well if there is a good game to justify it of course. Maybe that mM marionette making game. Whens the last time anybody mentioned that? Did it ever come up in our discussion of the 100 games for 2014 the other day?

Jaz007

#7

Jaz007 said:

This would be great, but this would be a lot for lifetime sales, 6 years isn't enough time.

Shaolin

#8

Shaolin said:

I'm confident that it can be done. The ps4 has brought us AAA gaming for the unbelievably cheap price of a sim-free smartphone. Social networking and increased online exposure means that all it needs is a couple of people in your friend group to buy a ps4 and everybody else gets one to join in the fun. Also, gaming used to be a thing for kiddies but now those kids have grown up and are introducing gaming to their own children instead of going camping. All of that together with new availability to previously untapped regions in the world. Even if we don't reach the 100 million mark it will easily beat out ps3's figures. The only thing I don't think we'll see is the level of profitability from the past. A lot of people on here don't realise that, sadly, selling more PS4s doesn't equate to higher profitability.

Jaz007

#10

Jaz007 said:

@RyoHazuki How many people in China can actually afford a PS4 though? If they make money off of China, I doubt it will be with the PS4. The cheaper PS3 is a more likely candidate.

jmburks

#11

jmburks said:

@alphadrago5 you make a good point but dont forget the ps2 sold like 150 million or somthing like that, so there are deffintely enough gamers to but 100 million ps4's. it's possible but i dont see it happening in 6 years, i see it more like a 100 million over the lifespan of the ps4 so more like 8-9 years. will see though!

alphadrago5

#12

alphadrago5 said:

@jmburks I couldn't have forgotten that because i never knew it.
If that's true then I change my mind, lol, it may in fact be very possible for the PS4 to reach 100m units sold, who knows it might even surpass the PS2 some day.

jmburks

#13

jmburks said:

Wouldnt that be cool! The better the system does the better it is for all of us!

Bad-MuthaAdebis

#14

Bad-MuthaAdebis said:

@Jaz007 there is about 300 million middle class households in China, this is probably going to double during the life cycle of the ps4 if growth continues at its predicted levels, it already dwarfs the US in terms of households with significant t disposable income.

Hetsumani

#15

Hetsumani said:

This isn't going to happen because dedicated console gaming is dead, everyone knows that. duh...

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