I think your guesses are unfortunately very good ones. That would be very disappointing for me.

Here are some guesses:
Little Deviants
Modnation
Reality Fighters
Pulzar
Tank battle

Realistically, I'm just hoping they add some launch titles that I'd get something out of like Virtua Tennis or Hot Shots Golf. And I'm hoping to see discounts on some really good stuff.

I really think Little Deviants and Modnation are a lock. Again, I hope I'm wrong.

I would like things like:
Dokuro
Sumioni
Rayman
Mortal Kombat
Disgaea 3
New King's Story
Dungeon Hunter Alliance
Virtue's Last Reward

I know some of those are new and definitely aren't being given away for free, but I would rather have discounts on them than little deviants for free.

If there is a discount for New Little King's Story, I might FINALLY get PS+.

I would be happiest with a wide variety of deep discounts on many games similar to the recent Halloween sale. That's great because there's a better chance of finding something you want. I would absolutely pull the trigger on several games if they were given any size discount: Dokuro, Disgaea 3, New Little King's Story, Virtue's Last Reward, and there are many PSP games I'd pick up on sale.

With that said I kind of expect the focus to be on the "instant game collection", and I just can't see them giving away any of those games.