Topic: Which First Party Exclusive Do You Think Will Sell The Most

I'm surprised people think Spider-Man will do that well. I can see 5 million at most, but I expect TLOU can easily do 8+ million.

I guess the sales figures for both Spider-Man and The Last of Us 2 will give us a clue as to an updated core age demographic for PS4 players. The former has universal appeal across all ages but, if the kids are all on Switch or playing mobile games as we're seemingly told, I think the latter has more guaranteed sales from older, more "hardcore" gamers (I hate that phrase, but you know what I mean).

@RogerRoger

?

@kyleforrester87 If it weren't for the Xbox controller, cigarette, alcohol and food stains on the shirt, plus the lack of glasses and slightly different colour hair, I'd be seriously paranoid about how you managed to sneak a camera into my lounge.

Otherwise, yes, you knew what I meant.

@RogerRoger so you DO game with a bottle of Jäger tucked down the side of your leg. Hm.

** ah no, you said no alcohol. You're clean, all good.

@kyleforrester87 Yeah, but we all have our vices and habits. I can't even get beyond a game's main menu unless I've got a fresh cup of coffee (AM) or tea (PM) by my side. I can then determine how much I'm enjoying the game I'm playing by the temperature of the beverage when I'm finally able to tear myself away from my controller to reach out and take a sip.

I'm stuck on a really tough level of Tomb Raider II at the moment. Burned my tongue earlier.

@RogerRoger @kyleforrester87 You guys are the best 😂

I often game and drink. They go well together in most cases, but with Bloodborne... Oof, no.

On the subject of Spider-Man I did a little research and tend to agree it won't sell as well as TLOU2.

The Batman Arkham games never sold more than 6 million, while the first TLOU on PS3 sold 6 million as well. I think it safe to say TLOU2 being a sequel will sell more than that 6 million. Spider Man being exclusive compared to Arkham, and a reboot will probably not reach 6 million.

But who knows. If the game is really good, and Sony makes a huge push, it might happen.

Spider-Man makes most sense for me, as cleverer people before have suggested, it's going for a wider market than TLOU2. Either way, I'm not really too excited for either as I think we'll be getting more of what we've already played a hundred times before with the likes of Uncharted, Batman etc.

Still, I'm sure they will look pretty, and I expect I'll play em both.

When's Ni No Kuni 2 out again?

@kyleforrester87 I think you've highlighted an important point there, namely that the two games most people are debating between are the two games that'll likely have the safest, perhaps the simplest, gameplay. All of the others are unique, quirky or just really niche.

@Kidfried Those are some interesting figures, thanks for digging them up! It'll be interesting to see what actually does happen in the shadow of that history (although there's a big difference between the Bat and the Spider, namely that one's DC and the other's Marvel... seriously, I've read comment sections before where people have made sweeping generalisations such as "DC do terrible movies and great everything else. Marvel does great movies and terrible everything else, so I'll never buy a Marvel game." Those kinds of polarising, passionate views always have an impact on big licences).

1) Dreams 25 million plus
2) Spiderman 15 million plus
3) Blood and Truth 10 million plus (packed in with ps5 vr)
4) TLOU 2 7 million
5) GOW 5 million
6) Detroit 3 million

@kyleforrester87 Ha, ha! That pic. It looks like he has an ice pack on his head, is that what it is? That or a weird Trump-esque hairdo.

I think it's worth noting that by the time TLOU2 hits (holiday 2019 ?), the PS4 will be at a 100million+.
I'd be shocked if it does any less than 10million (10% attach rate). I expect it to be the last first party exclusive for PS4 and Sony are going to market the hell out of it.

@Th3solution It's a camo hat, something I forgot to mention in my list of "other than" criteria (because my hat is infinitely more fantastic).

@themcnoisy 25 mil on dreams? Lol

Maybe, doesn't feel like the next Mine Craft though!

@kyleforrester87 I can only assume that @themcnoisy was saying that very tongue-in-cheek. The fact that since its been announced, which is a LONG time now, a LOT seem to forget this exists and those that do still seem very unsure of what this game actually is. Even if its a 'launch' title bundled in with the PS5 (like Wii Sports), that won't help it reach those figures. I would be surprised if Little Big Planet reached 25m combined sales across the franchise...

Spider-Man selling 15m seems rather optimistic - despite the fact its Spider-Man. Its had its share of 'disappointment' with reveals - not saying they are necessarily justified or will affect sales - but the QTE's and comments about visual downgrades has seemed to lead to more people less inclined to buy on day 1. I don't know if Spider-Man will be the bigger than the Last of Us but we still don't know enough. The combat, whilst very Batman in style, has been done a lot now too. Story and content in the world may determine how successful it turns out to be

I think these will all be 'financially' successful - as in profitable but considering the games that haven't sold 4m+ on PS4, I do wonder whether many of these will be 5m+ sellers.

@BAMozzy I did think that but then I thought could it actually be the next (PS exclusive) Minecraft?

Highly likely not, but still, you never know!

@kyleforrester87 I don't think Minecraft has sold more than 6m on the PS4. Its large sales numbers are spread across all platforms and especially on PC. Even on the 360, it sold around 10m of its 54m copies - the highest of any individual console so it would have to take off bigger than Minecraft did. 25m would make it the best selling game on PS4 - that's also a LOT more than GTAv sold (17.3m) and more than CoD (BO3 15m, WW2 11.65m) and Fifa (17 10.9m, 18 10.4m) and Uncharted 4 (9.94m). Of course these may be Physical numbers but that's still the benchmarks that these games set.

Blood and Truth at 10m, a VR game when VR hasn't really taken off. Even if bundled with PS5 VR, I doubt it would sell that many - not unless they basically give away the headset free with the game...

@kyleforrester87 @BAMozzy Whats gonna happen is this;

Donald Trumps focus on the violent game industry will make parents sit up and buy nice games for their kids.

Enter Dreams......

Some prominent games media personalities belief that Dreams will bomb so hard, that Sony will close down Mm.
I don't see it. I reckon it will do great with a long sales tail. 3-4 million for sure. 5 million+ if it can catch on with the minecraft gang.
This will be the first AAA PS4/PSVR game from Sony. The VR community maybe small in number, but it does have purchasing power. I think it will have a really high attach rate among PSVR owners and then you have all of those that will pick it up for the PS4 as well.

Speaking of First Party exclusives...
Concrete Genie.
I didn't realise PixelOpus was a First Party Studio.
Just makes you think who else Sony have got tapped up working on exclusives for them.

They'll not close down Media Molecule, me feels. They want to be able to market their console as family friendly, so I think they need Media Molecule in a way.